Betting Odds and Payout Rates in Sports Betting Explained

Betting odds express your possible return in the form of numbers. Decimal odds are standard in Ireland, which most bookmakers adhere to. You can determine your total return by multiplying your stake and the odds. This is why odds play a significant role when choosing a bookmaker. It's worth comparing odds across different platforms, and it's also necessary to accurately estimate the likelihood of an event. If you're looking for stable sites to place your bets on, make sure to give some of best Irish betting sites a try for competitive odds and solid service. All you need to know about betting odds is available here.

Decimal Odds: Ireland's Standard Format

Most Irish bookmakers present odds in decimal format. Decimal odds state your gross return for a €1 bet. So, for instance, if you back a €1 bet at odds of 2.50, you would get a return of €2.50. Decimal odds are easy to read and make it straightforward to calculate your potential return. Decimal odds don't, however, directly express probability.

Let's say an Irish bookie is offering 2.20 odds on a home win in a UEFA Champions League football match. Your gross return would be €22, and your net profit would be €12 if you're betting €10. The bookmaker only subtracts your stake in free bet offers—under these, you're not wagering your own balance.

So, the higher the odds and your wager, the higher your profit—but the higher the odds, the lower the chance of that outcome. This risk is multiplied in accumulator (multi-leg) bets. For example, two selections both at 2.20 odds will have a combined odd of 2.20 × 2.20 = 4.84. If you stake €10 on this combo, your potential return is €48.40.

Factors That Influence Odds and Probabilities

Odds can be represented as implied probabilities. As an example, take a 1X2 football market with three possible results: home win, draw, or away win—one of which is certain to happen. Bookmakers calculate odds from many inputs, such as:

The teams' or athletes' performance potential
Head-to-head and recent form
Injuries and suspensions
Weather and venue

They also simulate different game scenarios:

What if a player is sent off early?
How does the favourite respond to a shock goal?
What if a key player is injured early?
What if the opposing goalkeeper plays an absolute blinder?
What's the impact of a sudden and dramatic change in the weather?

These models are applied not just in football, but in every sport. Bookmakers often employ advanced statistical methods such as Poisson distribution to arrive at odds, particularly in football.

You don't need to be a math genius like Siméon Denis Poisson to develop an intuition for fair odds. Suppose Team A and Team B play ten times under the same conditions against one another. Ask yourself:

How often does Team A win?
How often does Team B win?
How often do they draw?

Factor in upsets and calculate based on your analysis to reach fair odds for your bets.

How Bookmakers Decide Payout Levels

Bookies are companies—they want to make money. That's why they almost never give odds based on a 100% probability. For instance, DAZN Bet might offer 100% payout levels on Bundesliga three-way bets in exceptional situations, but usually, the payout percentage is less.

Suppose a bookmaker uses a 94% payout rate instead of 100%. Even if they accept your probability estimates, they determine odds based on 94%. The implied odds would then be as follows:

Home Win (53%): 94/53 = 1.77
Draw (27%): 94/27 = 3.48
Away Win (20%): 94/20 = 4.70

Contrast that with a bookie offering 1.89 for the same home win—a 0.12 difference on a €100 stake equals €12 extra returns. Using an odds comparison tool, you can find a bookie offering 95% payout or higher. Ideally, you want to find a value bet—where the bookie underestimates an event's likelihood—so that odds become a strategic tool when betting.

What Else to Look Out for in Football Odds?

Odds also imply an approximate probability indirectly by a bookmaker. They also include a margin—so the payout is not 100% of stakes. For example:

A bookmaker offers 1.30 odds on a favourite.
This implies a 76.92% probability: 1 / 1.30 × 100 = 76.92%

If you believe the true chance is higher, it's a good wager. But if you believe the chance is only 65%, fair odds would be 1.53, and the offered 1.30 would be poor value. On a €100 bet, this difference is worth €23.

That's why it's important to choose a bookmaker with a high percentage payout. Top Irish bookmakers offer 97.5% or more in major events. For a 50% chance of winning, that's odds of 1.95. Compare that to a bookmaker who's only offering 92%, which would have you receiving only 1.84 for the same bet.

At €10 a bet, you'd receive €9.50 at one bookmaker, and only €8.40 with the other. Multiply that over 100 bets in a month, and that's €110 difference in winnings—just from selecting the correct odds. Calculate the payout rate when looking at bookies.

Betting Tax in Ireland: Do You Need to Worry?

Unlike Germany, Ireland doesn't charge a betting tax to punters. That's a massive advantage for Irish punters. In Germany, bookies are required to withhold a 5.3% betting tax on winnings or stakes, depending on the bookie. In Ireland, there is no such issue—you get full winnings.

But be warned: there are a few offshore bookmakers who charge hidden margins or reduced payout levels to offset taxes abroad. While betting remains free from tax in Ireland, it's always wise to verify the real odds quality when comparing sportsbooks.