Why Futures Bets Cost More: Sportsbook Hold Explained
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A futures bet costs more because the sportsbook builds its margin into every team on the board at once. A typical -110 point spread holds about 4.5%. A 30-team championship market with ordinary-looking prices can hold 25% or more, which is why the same "fair" opinion on a team is much harder to profit from in futures.
Key points
- Hold is the book's built-in margin: 1 minus 1 divided by the sum of all implied probabilities in a market.
- A two-way -110/-110 market holds about 4.55%. The illustrative 30-team futures market below holds about 25.7%.
- Each team's margin is small as a percentage point, but it is added 30 times, and the extra margin is largest on longshots.
- The cheapest way to cut the cost is to shop the same bet across books, because small price gaps are large relative to the edge you are trying to find.
- Futures make sense for entertainment, for early numbers you have a real opinion on, and when you plan to hedge, not as a default.
What hold is
Every price implies a probability. Convert American odds to implied probability with 100 / (odds + 100) for plus numbers and odds / (odds + 100) for minus numbers (using the absolute value). Add the implied probabilities for every outcome in the market. A fair market adds up to 100%. A real market adds up to more, and the excess is the book's margin. The conventional name for the margin as a share of the total is hold:
Hold = 1 - 1 / (sum of implied probabilities)
For a spread at -110 on both sides, each side is 110 / 210 = 52.38%. The sum is 104.76%, so hold = 1 - 1/1.0476 = 4.55%. Bet either side at random and you lose about $4.55 per $100 wagered on average. The relationship between price and payout is covered in odds and payout rates explained.
A 30-team market, step by step
The prices below are invented for the example and rounded; they are not a real board. They look like the sort of numbers you see in a league-champion market: one clear favorite, a middle group, and a long tail.
| Group | Teams | Price | Implied each | Group total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 1 | +300 | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| Contenders | 3 | +700 | 12.50% | 37.50% |
| Mid-tier | 5 | +1400 | 6.67% | 33.33% |
| Fringe | 8 | +3000 | 3.23% | 25.81% |
| Longshots | 13 | +10000 | 0.99% | 12.87% |
| Whole market | 30 | 134.51% |
Check one line: +700 means 100 / 800 = 12.5%, and three such teams add 37.5%. The market sums to 134.51%, so hold = 1 - 1/1.3451 = 25.66%. Exactly one team will win, so the true probabilities must total 100%. The book has priced in 34.5 points of probability that cannot exist.
What that costs you per bet
The simplest fair-price estimate scales every implied probability down proportionally so they total 100%. The favorite becomes 25 / 1.3451 = 18.59%, a fair price of about +438 instead of +300.
| Posted price | Implied | Scaled fair chance | Fair price | EV per $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +300 | 25.00% | 18.59% | +438 | -$25.66 |
| +700 | 12.50% | 9.29% | +976 | -$25.66 |
| +1400 | 6.67% | 4.96% | +1918 | -$25.66 |
| +3000 | 3.23% | 2.40% | +4070 | -$25.66 |
| +10000 | 0.99% | 0.74% | +13486 | -$25.66 |
Verify the first row: 0.1859 x $300 = $55.77 expected win, 0.8141 x $100 = $81.41 expected loss, net -$25.66. Compared with -$4.55 per $100 on a -110 spread, a futures ticket costs about 5.6 times as much. The scaling method spreads the margin evenly and is only a baseline. Books often shade longshots harder than favorites, so the real cost of a +10000 ticket can be higher than the table shows.
Why futures hold is so much larger
- Many outcomes. A spread has two outcomes and one margin. A futures board has 30 and the margin is stacked on each.
- Long uncertainty. The book is pricing months of injuries, trades and schedules, so it leaves room for error.
- Uneven exposure. Money can pile up on a few popular teams, and a book has no easy way to balance a futures market the way it can balance a two-way spread.
- Locked-up money. A ticket bought in preseason is not settled until the end of the season, and that wait is a cost the percentage hold does not show.
How to compare the same bet at different books
- Write the price for the same team, same market, same date at each book.
- Convert each to implied probability. +800 is 11.11%, +1000 is 9.09%.
- Choose the lowest implied probability, which is the highest payout.
- Estimate the dollar gap with your own win chance. If you think the true chance is 8%, then $100 at +800 has EV 0.08 x $800 - 0.92 x $100 = -$28.00, and at +1000 it is 0.08 x $1,000 - 0.92 x $100 = -$12.00. The better price is worth $16 per $100.
The price differences between books are usually the largest controllable factor. You can check them on the apps of the properties listed in the Las Vegas sportsbooks overview and through the mobile apps you already have registered.
When futures still make sense
- You are paying for entertainment. A small ticket gives a season a rooting interest. Set the amount as a spending line, not an investment.
- You have a specific edge. If you believe a team is 8% to win and the price implies 5%, the margin may still leave you ahead. Be honest about how you got to 8%.
- You plan to hedge. A cheap early ticket can become a position you lock in late; general approaches are in sports betting strategies.
- You are comparing prices anyway. If one book is far off the market, the gap itself is the opportunity.
FAQ
What is hold in sports betting?
Hold is the share of the market the sportsbook expects to keep on average. It is calculated as 1 minus 1 divided by the total of all implied probabilities.
Is hold the same as vig or juice?
They are related. Vig or juice usually names the commission on a two-way bet such as -110. Hold is the same idea expressed across a whole market and works for any number of outcomes.
Why are NFL spreads cheaper than season-long bets?
A spread has two outcomes and settles within days. A season-long market has many outcomes and months of uncertainty, and as the table above shows, the margin per ticket can be several times larger.
Do all sportsbooks charge the same hold on futures?
No. Prices differ between operators and across teams. The only way to know is to add up the implied probabilities for the market at each book.
Is a longshot ticket a bad bet?
Not automatically, but longshots often carry the most margin per dollar. Compare the price across books before you place one.