Free Bet vs Deposit Match: How to Value Each Sportsbook Offer
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A $100 free bet is not worth $100. When the stake is not returned, it is worth roughly 45 cents on the dollar at -110, about 64 cents at +200 and about 80 cents at +500. The same arithmetic prices deposit matches, profit boosts and no-sweat bets once you strip out the conditions.
Key points
- Most free bets (often labeled bonus bets) pay only the profit, not the stake, so value depends on the odds you use them on.
- Rule of thumb: expected value is about (1 minus implied probability) times (1 minus the book's margin) times the free bet amount.
- Higher odds convert more of the free bet into expected cash, at the price of a much lower hit rate.
- A deposit match is worth the bonus minus the expected loss on the required turnover.
- Read rollover, expiry, minimum odds and excluded markets before you opt in, because each one cuts the value.
The five offer types
Sportsbook promotions come in a handful of shapes, and the labels are not standardized, so the terms of each offer decide which one you are actually getting.
- Free bet / bonus bet: credit you stake on a market. If it wins you receive the profit only. The credit itself is not paid out. This is the common structure at US books; confirm it in the offer terms.
- Deposit match: the book credits a percentage of your deposit, either as bonus bets or as cash that must be wagered a set number of times (rollover) before it can be withdrawn.
- Profit boost: a bet at better odds than the posted price, usually capped at a maximum stake.
- No-sweat bet: a real cash bet that is refunded, typically as a bonus bet, if it loses.
Step 1: price a free bet
Take a $100 free bet where the stake is not returned. If you bet it at American odds, a win pays the profit, and a loss costs you nothing. The expected value is then simple. A market priced at implied probability p has a true win chance of about p times (1 minus margin). A typical two-way point-spread market at -110 each side holds about 4.5% (implied probabilities of 52.38% twice, 104.76% in total, so the hold is 1 minus 1/1.0476 = 4.545%). Using that margin:
Free bet value = amount x (1 - implied probability) x 0.9545
| Odds | Implied probability | Win profit on $100 | Expected value | Share of face value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -300 | 75.00% | $33.33 | $23.86 | 24% |
| -110 | 52.38% | $90.91 | $45.45 | 45% |
| +200 | 33.33% | $200 | $63.64 | 64% |
| +500 | 16.67% | $500 | $79.55 | 80% |
| +1000 | 9.09% | $1,000 | $86.78 | 87% |
Check the +200 row by hand: the true win chance is 33.33% x 0.9545 = 31.82%. Expected profit = 0.3182 x $200 = $63.64. At +500: 16.67% x 0.9545 = 15.91%, and 0.1591 x $500 = $79.55. The numbers match the shortcut.
That is why the larger price wins for a free bet: you are not risking your own money, so the only cost of a longshot, the lower chance of winning, is not a cost at all. The $100 at +500 has a higher expected value ($79.55 against $63.64) but it pays only about 1 time in 6, so the result is far lumpier. For a single free bet, expected value is the right yardstick. Real longshot prices often carry more margin than -110 spreads, so treat the +1000 row as an upper bound and compare it against the posted price at several books (see the sportsbook overview at Las Vegas sportsbooks).
Step 2: price a deposit match
Suppose the book matches a $100 deposit with $100 in cash-equivalent credit, and requires 5x rollover on deposit plus bonus. These are illustrative terms, not any book's actual terms.
- Turnover required: 5 x ($100 + $100) = $1,000.
- Expected loss per dollar wagered at -110: $5 on $110 risked, which is 4.545%.
- Expected loss on turnover: $1,000 x 4.545% = $45.45.
- Approximate bonus value: $100 - $45.45 = $54.55.
This ignores the chance of busting out before the rollover is complete, which lowers the value further, and it assumes you can find -110 markets that count in full. If the match is paid as a bonus bet instead, price it with the table above: a $100 bonus bet used at +200 is worth about $63.64 rather than $54.55. Compare both against a lower rollover. At 1x on $200 the expected loss is $9.09 and the bonus is worth about $90.91.
Step 3: price a profit boost
A boost adds to the profit of a bet you pay for with real money. Take a 25% boost on a $50 bet at +200, so a win pays $125 profit instead of $100.
- True win chance: 0.3333 x 0.9545 = 31.82%.
- Unboosted EV: 0.3182 x $100 - 0.6818 x $50 = $31.82 - $34.09 = -$2.27.
- Boosted EV: 0.3182 x $125 - 0.6818 x $50 = $39.77 - $34.09 = +$5.68.
- Value of the boost: $5.68 - (-$2.27) = $7.95, which equals 25% x $100 x 0.3182.
A boost is worth its percentage times the unboosted profit times the win chance. A big boost on a long shot is worth more than the same boost on a favorite, and the stake cap limits the dollar value.
Step 4: price a no-sweat bet
You bet $100 cash at +200 with a refund of up to $100 as a bonus bet if it loses. The cash bet alone has an EV of -$4.55 (4.545% of $100). The refund is paid only 68.18% of the time, and its value depends on where you use it.
| Where the refund is used | Refund value | Chance it is paid | Added EV | Total EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | $45.45 | 68.18% | $30.99 | +$26.44 |
| +200 | $63.64 | 68.18% | $43.39 | +$38.84 |
| +500 | $79.55 | 68.18% | $54.24 | +$49.69 |
The same bonus bet therefore moves the total from about $26 to about $50 depending only on the odds chosen for the refund.
What to check before you opt in
- Stake returned or not: if the stake is returned, the value is higher than the table; check the wording.
- Expiry: bonus credit can expire within days. A 7-day window appears in many US offers, but the length is set by each operator, so read the terms.
- Rollover and minimum odds: both reduce the value of a cash match.
- Excluded markets: some books exclude parlays, live betting or particular sports.
- Single use: a bonus bet usually has to be staked in one piece, so a $100 credit cannot be split into ten $10 longshots.
Finally, keep promo money separate from your bankroll plan. If you are in town on a trip, a budget approach is covered in bankroll strategies for destination gambling trips, and past sportsbook bonuses show how these offers have been packaged. For how prices convert to probabilities, see odds and payout rates explained.
FAQ
Why is a free bet worth less than its face value?
Because the stake is not paid back. A $100 free bet that wins at +200 returns $200, not $300, and a loss returns nothing, so the expected value is a fraction of $100.
Should I always use a free bet on a longshot?
For expected dollars, higher odds convert more of the credit into value. The cost is variance: at +500 you win about one time in six. If you want a steadier result, a shorter price is the trade.
Is a deposit match better than a free bet?
It depends on rollover. With a 1x requirement a match can be worth most of its face value; at 5x or more the expected loss on the turnover can take roughly half of it.
Do sportsbook bonuses expire?
Usually yes, and the window varies by operator and offer. Check the terms attached to the specific promotion in the app or on the sportsbook's website.
Can I split a bonus bet into smaller bets?
Often not. Many offers require the full credit to be used on one wager, so look for the sentence in the terms about partial use.